With the issuance of 5G licenses on June 6, 2019, the 5G era has officially arrived. On October 31 of the same year, China's three major operators officially launched 5G. As the 5G commercial process deepens, eMBB, mMTC, and uRLLC will promote mobile Internet, Internet of Things, big video, big data, and cloud computing. Artificial intelligence, and other related fields, fission-like development, to empower transportation, industry, education, medical, energy, video entertainment and other vertical industries. 5G is not a simple upgrade of 4G, but an expansion of the industry category and the reconstruction of a cross-industry integration ecology.
5G Refactoring Smart Terminal Ecological Layout
Correspondingly, terminals will be dominated by smartphones in the 4G era, and will rapidly expand to pan-smart terminals. It is estimated that by 2023, China's terminal market will form a market of trillions to tens of trillions consisting of more than 400 million smartphones and hundreds of millions or even billions of pan-terminals.
IDC data show that in the third quarter of 2019, China's smartphone market shipments were approximately 98.9 million units, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year. While the development of smartphones is in the platform stage, the market concentration of TOP 5 vendors including Huawei (including Glory), vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Apple has increased from 87.9% in the third quarter of 2018 to 94.9%, and the competition in the mobile phone market has become more intense. It is fierce that head manufacturers need to seize the opportunity of the blue ocean development of pan-intelligent terminals in the 5G era.
The high concentration of the mobile phone market also means that the head manufacturers have the advantages of scale, the ability to pool resources and the strength of technological research and development, which provides conditions for ecological expansion. Among the Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, Xiaomi took the lead in launching the "mobile phone + AIoT" dual-engine strategy. Huawei also upgraded its AIoT strategy to a full-scenario smart strategy, and jointly led the evolution of the ecological layout of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers from mobile phones to pan-smart terminals. After OPPO established the Emerging Mobile Terminal Division in early 2019, it has also recently officially launched the IoT enablement action, joining the ranks of building a full-scenario ecosystem and services.
Cross-platform operating system is the trend
From the decentralized layout to the ecological layout, in the all-scenario ecology and services jointly constructed by mobile phones and pan-intelligent terminals, the mobile phone system must seamlessly connect with the pan-terminal system to achieve multi-device linkage and mutual coordination to provide services for different scenarios. In order to maintain good interaction within the ecosystem with high efficiency and high performance, mobile phones and pan-smart terminals should use cross-platform operating systems.
In this trend, because Android is designed for mobile phones, it is difficult to bear the heavy responsibility of operating systems in the 5G era and the post-5G era. Google started the Fuchsia OS cross-platform operating system project in the open source community in 2016, and plans to replace Android and Chrome OS in the future. In the concept of Fuchsia OS, many information and data of mobile phones and computers, headsets, speakers, TV boxes, smart homes, wearable devices, AR / VR, Internet of Things and other pan-smart terminals can be synchronized or shared directly, and can be shared A closed loop ecosystem that realizes the expectations of a unified ecosystem with a single operating system.
Do Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have a chance to develop a cross-platform operating system and build a system comparable to the Apple ecosystem during the window of opportunity for mobile phones to pan-terminals to flourish and Android to switch to next-generation systems?
China urgently needs cross-platform layout of smart terminals
Chinese mobile phone manufacturers must have sufficient technical strength, the functionality and performance of the new operating system must be comparable to or even stronger than Google ’s operating system, and they must have a sufficient market share and user loyalty to mobile phone brands in the market. May negotiate with Google on the adaptation of GMS.
According to IDC data, in the global mobile phone market in the third quarter of 2019, Huawei's share was 18.6%, lower than Samsung's 21.8%, higher than Apple's 13%, ranking second, and Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo all had less than 10 %. Even if it is not enough for a market share like Huawei to have an equal dialogue with Google, Huawei mobile phones are still growing at a high speed, and their market share continues to rise. In addition, if Huawei Mobile Services (HMS) successfully develops its capabilities, it can enhance its substitution for GMS, especially in non-European and American regions. Accelerating the introduction of user accumulation will give Huawei a greater say. In terms of the global market, only Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have the potential to succeed in the ecological layout of the operating system.
Future cross-platform operating system is expected to "three kingdoms stand"
According to IDC data, in the Chinese mobile phone market in the third quarter of 2019, Huawei led 42%, vivo was 18.3%, OPPO was 16.6%, Xiaomi 9.8%, and Apple 8.2%. Huawei has a voice in more than 40% of the mobile phone market. At the same time, Huawei ’s full-scenario smart strategy is working in the field of pan-intelligent terminals, and began to apply Hongmeng's cross-platform operating system on pan-intelligent terminals such as smart screens. Operating system.
It can be expected that Huawei cuts in from the pan-smart terminal and leverages the multi-billion-scale pan-terminal market in the 5G era to further migrate to smartphones to build Huawei's own cross-platform operating system ecosystem in China. The road is clear and feasible. Of course, can the Hongmeng system be extended in other countries outside China, and how can the domestically originated ecosystem compete with the broader ecosystem in the international arena in order to achieve coexistence and coexistence? These issues need to continue research and exploration.
Looking at Xiaomi, although it took the lead in the field of pan-intelligent terminals and has a certain scale in many single products, its mobile phone market share is insufficient. Even if it can develop its own cross-platform operating system in the field of pan-terminals, Lack of ability to migrate to mobile phones.
Similarly, the mobile phone share and development momentum of vivo and OPPO in China are not enough to support vivo and OPPO to achieve their own cross-platform operating system layout on mobile phones. For Chinese manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, and even terminal manufacturers such as Samsung and LG in the world, in the case of inability to independently develop a cross-platform operating system ecosystem, embrace Google Fuchsia OS and jointly undertake the Android application ecosystem to migrate to Fuchsia. A more suitable choice.
Under the general trend of Internet of Everything in the 5G era, Android will gradually withdraw. Huawei Hongmeng may seize the epoch-making opportunity and coexist with iOS and Fuchsia to form a pattern of three parallel development.
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